A big name author is a sure bet. The rest is a gamble in books

What's in a name? A bestselling book, almost certainly, if the name is Crichton, Patterson, King, Cussler, Koontz, Demille.

There isn't a name on December's bestselling fiction list (courtesy Films and Books) that isn't a famous brand, a sure bet or a golden tier-one novelist: Albon, Crichton, Patterson, Harris, Cussler, Koontz, King, Demille. The big performers were lined up for this Christmas season. Like television studios, the big studios lined up their best, timing the release for the big selling season:

1 For One More Day
Albom, Mitch
Hyperion, $21.95. ISBN 1401303277.

2 Next Crichton, Michael
HarperCollins, $27.95. ISBN 0060872985.

3 Cross
James Patterson
Little, Brown, $27.99. ISBN 0316159794.

4 Hannibal Rising
Harris, Thomas
Delacorte, $27.95. ISBN 0385339410.

5 Dear John
Nicholas Sparks
Warner, $24.99. ISBN 0446528056.

6 Treasure of Khan
Clive Cussler and Dirk Cussler
Putnam, $27.95. ISBN 0399153691.

7 Brother Odd
Dean Koontz
Bantam, $27. ISBN 0553804804.

8 Wild Fire
DeMille, Nelson.
Warner, $26.99. ISBN 044657967X.

9 Lisey's Story
King, Stephen
Scribner, $28. ISBN 0743289412.

10 Nature Girl
Hiaasen, Carl
Knopf, $25.95. ISBN 0307262995.

Is there no room for the breakout stars on bestseller lists?

Big Publishers Don't Gamble

I've said it before, and will repeat it many times: big publishers push and market the big names. Big business prefers sure bets. The investment is too big to do otherwise. And like any big business, the debut brands are seeded amongst the sure bets. If they fly, wonderful, but the budget is "throw away." Two big seasons, spring and fall (for readers that summer reads and Christmas buys), are the chance for publishers to make it big. The smaller names are seeded amongst the big authors.

Yes, some of these bigs, Hyperion, Little, Brown, Harper Collins, Scribner, some of them find and release new authors—but with a dribble of marketing. It's all be spent on the big names. The democracy of the "sure thing."

Any Hope with Small Publishers?

Historically, it has been left to the small publishers, the small trades as they are called. But the small publishers rarely focus on fiction. Non-Fiction sells well, if the subject is timely. It's less risky. it's fairly easy for a new author to breakout, even with a big publisher, if the theme is timely or new. My own The Persona Principle released from Simon & Schuster this way. And it went best seller, but more because it was nonfiction, I'm an expert in marketing—and certainly not because of the tiny marketing budget.

Small Publishers don't want to risk fiction. Readers are fickle (see my Myth of Publishing article.) Big publishers focus on big names. Many fiction writers end up self publishing, sometimes very successful (I'm thinking of Eragon here, a runaway success thanks to solid promoting from Christopher Paolini's entire family who trooped about in costume from store to store, promoting the book, until, finally, a big publisher snapped them up.)

A New Generation?

There are some well-financed new publishers appearing with substantial buzz on the scene. Kunati Books focuses entirely on breakthrough debut novelists, and their choices have received rave reviews with the likes of Publishers Weekly and Booklist. My own debut from this company, The Game, received "injects the trope with new vigor...compels us to keep reading" from Booklist, a "sexy" from Publishers Weekly, and "suspenseful and rich with dark humor...in the thriller tradition of Connolly" from Foreword. All the books on the list are receiving similar attention. Which means—it can be done.

It's Still A Gamble

Small publishers, even well-financed ones, are still gambling millions on new authors. Where do they find them? "We like mining the critique groups more and more. We're having more success with the serious full-novel critique groups than with agents these days," said Editor-in-Chief James McKinnon at Kunati. "Deadly Prose is one of the best. Novel Pro is another good one for us. If the books have been critiqued by other novelists, the quality, not just of the writing, but also the richness of plot and character, is more certain. We read those first."